Strategic industries and commodities

World schema v21 and inference rules v6 attach a nonempty, bounded InferredIndustryProfile to every imported settlement. The profile describes plausible local production in 1544; it is strategic world data, not a tactical simulation or a market inventory.

Industry inference runs after route-terrain finalization. It consumes only the canonical HYDE 3.5 land-use reconstruction, historical vegetation, finalized SoilGrids/EGDI soil and lithology, OWDA moisture, EU-Hydro access, settlement population, and incident finalized routes. Scores and thresholds use integers and basis points. Outputs are sorted, unique, and limited to 24 per settlement.

Routes can downgrade Regional production to Local or Marginal; they never invent a crop, fishery, deposit, fuel, or construction material. Mining currently contains coal only and requires explicit coal-bearing sedimentary geology. Crystalline rocks never imply metals.

Derived outputs cover agriculture (grain, flax, wool, dairy, hides), freshwater, estuarine, and marine fishing, exact mapped quarry stone, coal mining, clay and earthenware pottery, convergent peat cutting, woodland products and charcoal, evaporite/saline/coastal-fuel saltmaking, and evidence-backed construction inputs. Peat requires an organic/Histosol/peat parent plus wet convergence; topsoil carbon alone is insufficient. Coastal brine requires open-coast access and woodland or peat fuel, so Baltic access alone does not imply solar salt.

If no derived output clears its threshold, exactly one marginal fallback is chosen in stable precedence: freshwater fish, grazing dairy, cropland grain, woodland fuelwood, then common aggregate. A fallback cannot claim regional scale or an arbitrary resource.

Offline validation and the SpacetimeDB reducer recheck profile bounds, canonical ordering, route scale limits, and resource evidence. Build-report counters reconcile settlements, derived/fallback outputs, and every industry category. Required Markdown provenance fails closed when the source-note bound cannot hold it.

The complete official-world audit remains blocked until all upstream distributions are available locally. The synthetic rules matrix is deterministic and does not close issue #62 by itself.